Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 25.157663 30.037256 35.379461 41.632626 48.720578 56.474603 65.567055
2025-08-10 17.473581 23.770122 31.349849 41.015820 52.875377 66.810047 84.268457
2025-08-17 13.482276 20.362769 29.282414 41.409796 57.161134 76.608669 102.082976
2025-08-24 10.619497 17.629819 27.332734 41.266694 60.237768 84.614829 117.685682
2025-08-31 8.183081 14.923126 24.864929 39.896604 61.265657 89.724176 129.540398
2025-09-07 6.866427 13.594024 24.073403 40.612170 64.964197 98.333796 146.163774
2025-09-14 5.492432 11.875183 22.403669 39.765728 66.245686 103.564919 158.326876
2025-09-21 4.742230 11.065537 22.015711 40.741808 70.130102 112.488815 175.808756
2025-09-28 3.673119 9.429534 20.010709 38.910514 69.583268 114.956370 184.234613
2025-10-05 3.267081 9.004897 20.020922 40.317239 74.039176 124.825461 203.499541
2025-10-12 2.862477 8.492599 19.791431 41.263513 77.772957 133.725200 221.621026
2025-10-19 2.533165 8.072485 19.668750 42.354009 81.757549 143.114987 240.729007
2025-10-26 2.189138 7.579254 19.418883 43.341593 85.881004 153.280663 261.982683
2025-11-02 1.754674 6.740609 18.356802 42.755076 87.356194 159.464236 277.608353
2025-11-09 1.471906 6.216313 17.863986 43.165637 90.523737 168.406116 297.706549
2025-11-16 1.201913 5.632090 17.135061 43.018050 92.657954 175.724207 315.483434
2025-11-23 0.914972 4.871500 15.854751 41.602447 92.377741 179.030562 327.021671
2025-11-30 0.779741 4.573132 15.634583 42.341836 96.059045 189.004109 349.401511
2025-12-07 0.604626 4.037450 14.710377 41.467205 96.635347 193.740948 363.485675
2025-12-14 0.522886 3.843051 14.651961 42.475780 100.838841 204.784604 388.086572
2025-12-21 0.374830 3.253129 13.374918 40.583377 99.261661 205.753429 396.176409
2025-12-28 0.333310 3.165381 13.535332 42.037098 104.373477 218.575779 424.206229
2026-01-04 0.286869 3.021691 13.499907 43.014783 108.565845 229.894547 450.000764